Napa County: Q4 Results
Pacific Union’s Napa County region enjoyed robust sales throughout the fourth quarter. The supply of homes was tight — a common problem throughout the Bay Area — but buyers were eager to scoop up any fairly priced property in all areas of the county, from the City of Napa in the south to large estates farther north.
Although inventory remained limited, it was not the Seller’s Markets of the first and second quarters. Properties sat on the market longer in the fourth quarter, and buyers were able to negotiate deals that were unheard of earlier in the year. That said, attractive properties that were priced well still commanded multiple offers throughout the county.
Looking Forward: We expect to see increased inventory levels beginning in January and continuing through the spring and summer. Many sellers wait until flowers are blooming and their properties are looking their best before they put their homes on the market, but we encourage them to get a jump on the competition and put out a for-sale sign early in the year.
Defining Napa County: Our real estate markets in Napa County include the cities of American Canyon, Angwin, Calistoga, Napa, Oakville, Rutherford, St. Helena, and Yountville. Sales data in the charts below includes all single-family homes in Napa County.
Median Sales Price
The median sales price represents the midpoint in the range of all prices paid. It indicates that half the prices paid were higher than this number, and half were lower. It is not the same measure as “average” sales price. Median sales price in December was down slightly from November, but was up year over year. Also, median sales price was remarkably steady from March 2014 to December 2014, evidence the Napa Real Estate Market has more or less stabilized.
Months’ Supply of Inventory
The months’ supply of inventory is a measure of how quickly the current supply of homes would be sold at the current sales rate, assuming no more homes came on the market. In general, an MSI below 4 is considered a seller’s market; between 4 and 6 is a balanced market; and above 6 is a buyer’s market. Months’ supply of inventory was down to 3 months in December, common for the time of year. Contrary to popular belief, winter can be a great time to sell because of the decreased competition. Expect months’ supply of inventory to rise as we approach the Spring months.
Average Days on the Market
Average days on the market is a measure that indicates the pace of sales activity. It tracks, on average, the number of days a listing is active until it reaches “pending” status, meaning all contingencies have been removed and both parties are just waiting to close. Average days on the market in December was the highest it has been since March 2014.
Percentage of Properties Under Contract
Percentage of properties under contract is a forward-looking indicator of sales activity. It tracks expected home sales before the paperwork is completed and the sale actually closes. Percentage of properties under contract was down from November, but up significantly year over year. January 2015 has been a much more active month than January 2014; and we are optimistic about a strong first quarter in 2015. The notable number of properties under contract in December supports this belief.
Sales Price as a Percentage of Original Price
Measuring the sales price as a percentage of the final list price, which may include price reductions from the original list price, determines the success of a seller in receiving the hoped-for sales amount. It also indicates the level of sales activity in a region.
A Closer Look at Napa County
Year over year, the number of homes sold is down in every city but St Helena. This drop in units sold is being driven by low inventory, a trend we predict will continue. On the positive side, the tight inventory helped power strong price gains in Napa.
The under $500,000 market is quickly disappearing because homes previously under the mark have appreciated. Buyers who purchased these sub $500,000 homes a couple years ago are cashing in on their equity and purchasing larger, nicer homes in better neighborhoods. The solid growth in the move up market, $500,000 to $999,000, is evidence of this phenomenon. Metrics in the luxury market, $1 million to $3 million, were positive across the board; volume, units sold and median price were all up. Days on market were down.
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(all data current as of 10/14/2019)
Listing information deemed reliable but not guaranteed. Read full disclaimer.