Autumn markets around the Bay Area have seen significant shifts, but with wide variance in the magnitude of these changes between counties. So far, Napa County has seen much less dramatic changes than other local markets such as Santa Clara and Sonoma Counties.

The number of active listings is up from 2016 and 2017, but quite comparable to the 3 previous years.

Over the last 3 months, the number of Napa home sales actually ticked up on a year-over-year basis instead of down (as was the case in some other nearby counties): August sales were higher, September’s were lower and October’s higher again: No dramatic change overall.

Though well below the peak in June – which looks a little abnormal in its sudden increase – the sales price to original list price (SP-OP) percentage in October 2018 was the same as in October 2017, and a bit higher than in October 2016. It is true that counties closer in to the center of the Bay Area, and the high-tech boom, have generally seen more overbidding of asking prices and higher SP-OP percentages than Napa.

The quantity of listings reducing prices has climbed considerably in recent months – and that can be an important indicator of market change. Some other local counties have seen staggering increases in price reductions – sometimes over 350% year-over-year jumps – and that has not yet been the case in Napa.

Once again, other counties have often seen considerable increases in the number of listings expiring and withdrawn from the market without selling – a clear sign of a growing disconnect between buyer and seller expectations. Napa is not yet seeing a similar dynamic, though there has been the typical seasonal increase in such listings.

For a market its size – Napa has by far the smallest of the 9 Bay Area counties – Napa has a surprisingly large ultra-luxury segment, in this case defined as homes listed for $5 million and above. There were 50 such MLS listings in October (as compared to 67 in San Francisco). However, sales activity is quite low: Only 3 sales over the past 3 months. Rich buyers have a lot of choices of spectacular homes and estates in Napa, and apparently face little competition from other buyers.